Congreso Ibero-Latinoamericano de Seguridad Contra Incendios - CILASCI 8, Santander (Spain). 08-10 April 2026
Summary:
Wildfires are increasingly affecting electric power systems through two coupled pathways: ignitions initiated by grid assets (e.g., faults, conductor–vegetation contact, arcing) and damage or operational disruption when fires reach overhead transmission corridors, substations, and supporting structures. Utilities, therefore, need quantitative, spatially explicit methods that turn fire-behavior uncertainty into actionable indicators at the asset level.
This conference paper presents an operational workflow for building wildfire ensembles and deriving burn probability and time-to-impact metrics for power transmission infrastructure. The workflow builds on open-data landscape preparation, combining public forest maps and inventories with LiDAR-derived canopy structure to generate high-resolution fuels and canopy layers. Fire spread is simulated using FlamMap together with a calibrated Cellular Automata (CA) model. Ensemble modelling propagates uncertainty in ignition location, wind regimes, and fuel moisture, so outputs can be expressed as probability and arrival-time ranges rather than single deterministic estimates. The outputs are post-processed into gridded burn-probability and fire-arrival-time maps, and then aggregated within corridor buffers to produce segment-level exposure indices for planning and operations. In this contribution, we focus on the methodology and its data requirements; a full case-study validation and quantitative performance assessment are the subject of ongoing work.
Spanish layman's summary:
Conjuntos de simulaciones de incendios forestales de alta resolución, usando datos abiertos de LiDAR y mapas forestales, protegen la red eléctrica mapeando la probabilidad y tiempos de llegada. Los resultados permiten optimizar el mantenimiento y la respuesta rápida para prevenir apagones.
English layman's summary:
High-resolution wildfire ensembles, using open LiDAR and forest data, protect power grids by mapping burn probability and arrival times. These results allow for optimized vegetation management and real-time response to prevent blackouts.
Keywords: Wildfire modeling; Operational fire simulation; Cellular Automata; FlamMap; Ensemble modeling; LiDAR; Overhead transmission lines
Published in: Actas del VIII Congreso Ibero – Latino Americano de Seguridad contra Incendios: CILASCI 8, pp: 82-91, ISBN: 978-84-19897-51-0
Publication date: 10-Apr-2026.
Citation:
J.L. Gómez, A. Cantizano, P. Ayala, "Operational Wildfire Ensembles for Electric Grid Assets: Mapping Burn Probability and Exposure", presented at Congreso Ibero-Latinoamericano de Seguridad Contra Incendios - CILASCI 8, Santander, Spain, 08-10 April 2026. In: Actas del VIII Congreso Ibero – Latino Americano de Seguridad contra Incendios: CILASCI 8, pp. 82-91
IIT-26-077C
